By Chris Iggo, CIO Core Investments, AXA Investment Managers

Energy security, the robustness of global supply chains and climate change have become inextricably linked in recent years. Geopolitical and environmental tensions have contributed to the need for companies to focus on shortened supply chains and reduced carbon footprints, and for governments to incorporate sustainability into fiscal investment and policy frameworks.

Most recently, the war in Ukraine has highlighted issues around energy and food security – and how potential geopolitical alignments can disrupt the global trading system. Uncertainty around near to medium-term inflation and economic growth has resulted.

Arguably, investors should consider resetting expectations which may be based on a pre-2018 world of low inflation, low interest rates, globalised manufacturing and markets, and depressed risk premiums in financial markets. When thinking about this, we believe there are five questions for investors to consider.

Do pension funds need to revisit their assumptions about the global economy?

Peace and security in Eastern Europe have been challenged by the Ukraine crisis and progress towards reducing CO₂ emissions has been pushed back by the political and economic need to replace Russian energy sources. In the short term this looks like more fossil fuel utilisation and a reduced probability of limiting the rise in global atmospheric temperature to below 1.5^oC by 2050.

The rise in energy prices will reduce real incomes, especially for the poorest, while the rise in global interest rates could impact on economic growth and employment for many. There is also the risk of a political push-back to the net-zero agenda as populist voices focus on the cost-of-living crisis and push for renewed investment in fossil-fuel capacity.

Combining the crisis with the ongoing impact of COVID-19, it is clear more thought needs to be given to the security of supply, in terms of inputs to the manufacturing process but also in terms of distribution. Labour shortages at transport hubs have become more commonplace, disrupting exports and imports, and onward distribution to consumer markets.

In the short term the focus is on how higher energy prices will impact on the path of inflation in developed and emerging economies, and generate a permanent shift higher in inflation expectations. This is a clear and present danger given the path inflation has taken since 2020 and considering that inflationary pressures have not been limited to just energy.

Could inflation prove sustained, even as interest rates move higher?

Core inflation is higher and wage growth has responded both to higher costs and to tight labour markets. For fixed income investors this creates the biggest challenge for many years. Higher inflation means negative real returns from bonds both in terms of income (yields are lower than inflation) and in terms of capital adjustment as interest rates are increased.

The consensus is that inflation pressures will ease over the next year. Indeed, most of the monetary tightening is anticipated to happen within the next 12 to 18 months, and thereafter both inflation and interest rates should come down.

However, there are potential alternative outcomes. One key risk is that inflation is mis-priced and will remain higher over the medium-term than is currently expected. Forward inflation markets do suggest higher average inflation rates than those we saw pre-pandemic, but they are only marginally above existing central bank target ranges.

If the world must adapt to new supply chains, reshoring and higher costs of transportation, then inflation could generally run higher. That would bring higher equilibrium rates too, potentially pushing bond yields above what is currently priced in forward markets. Inflation uncertainty should lead to higher interest rate term premiums. Given existing household, corporate and government debt levels, higher financing costs could bring credit problems and more dispersion among credit-based assets.

Could equities be further at risk?

Economic growth forecasts have been revised down and that should, all things being equal, push risk premiums in equity markets higher. Equity markets have de-rated to a large extent over the last year – as is typical at the start of a monetary tightening cycle – but consensus expectations are that earnings will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace.

The key risk to equity performance is an earnings shock from corporates or through more severe cuts to economic growth forecasts. A US recession in the next two years, driven mostly by the Federal Reserve’s response to higher inflation, is a clear risk. Higher inflation probably requires policy to target demand. The rise in energy prices does create risks of second-round inflation effects. Higher rates will be part of trying to break the inflation cycle and that creates growth risks. The outlook for bonds and equities will diverge at some point as a result.

The longer-term themes of security and sustainability will persist beyond the current monetary tightening cycle. The arguments for countries and companies to have more security in terms of energy is clear to see.

This means we need to accelerate the transition to alternative energy for both political-economy and environmental reasons. Technology driven reductions in the cost of alternative energy set against the elevated cost of hydrocarbons make clear the economic logic of this. But, of course, the constraint is capacity and achieving critical mass will need a lot more investment.

Has the energy transition become harder to achieve?

The sunny uplands of the energy transition are appealing: De-centralised energy production; massively reduced reliance on hydrocarbons; cheaper energy not subject to the same level of geopolitical influence. Geographically well-positioned regions could become major sources of cheap renewable solar and wind power, feeding into other intermediate energy sources like hydrogen.

The potential for economic transformation is clear.

Countries able to accelerate the shift away from reliance on hydrocarbons will experience lower energy price inflation going forward which is clearly beneficial to households and the corporate sector. Unfortunately, the most recent period has shown up those that have under-invested in the energy infrastructure. And that brings us back to the inflation risks. Whether through raising carbon prices or limited capacity in the traditional power sector, the transition is likely to see higher energy prices before the global economy feels the benefit of a more sustainable energy sector over the medium-term.

Where are the investment opportunities?

Geopolitical security is likely to be a concern going forward. Being reliant on materials, commodities, goods and skills which reside in or originate from unfriendly political states is more of a concern for companies. As part of assessing ESG risks, understanding supply chains and their vulnerability for the business as well as their impact on people and planet will be even more important in determining attractive investments.

Geopolitical events can lay bare weaknesses in the global economy. Often energy has been the conduit for economic disruption, but trade and people displacement are also typical. The minimisation of physical risks to companies supports the ongoing deployment of digital solutions and automation in the value chain.

Delivering more secure and equitable health, energy, food and physical protection are likely to be key priorities for society over the next decade.

For investors the need to go even further in understanding business models, the risks they are subject to, and the broader impact they have is even greater today. Investment opportunities in companies which are on track to meet their net zero carbon emissions targets, which can manage their supply chains so they are at less risk from shocks, and which can focus on providing equitable, flexible and well-rewarded employment is the nirvana for responsible investors. At the same time avoiding exposure to assets in countries falling short of international benchmarks in terms of human rights, diplomacy and environmental standards should be a guiding lesson of recent events.

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